Industry Insight

Date March 2019

Approximate net recovery on cost


Current trends

  • March 2018 import levies of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum cause distress across the manufacturing and consumer industries
  • As a result of tariffs on select imports, borrowers may face unexpected cost increases that could compress margins



Projected Values - Aluminum


Current Trends

  • In March 2018, the Trump administration enacted a tariff of 10% on aluminum imports; subsequently, China enacted a 25% punitive tariff on aluminum scrap imports, resulting in distress across manufacturing and consumer industries
  • Tariffs and countervailing duties applied for trade cases resolved in 2018 have fully rolled through the industry so the impact of tariffs is fully included in most inventories
  • To the extent that a U.S./China trade deal were to be finalized, it would presumably unwind the non-exempted 10% tariff (countervailing duties would be presumably unaffected), which would likely negatively impact base aluminum prices and positively impact aluminum scrap prices


LME Aluminum Price Cash Buyer